Random ticking clocks

I'm having a hard time with making the passage of time consequential to my current campaign. The PCs take their time to do everything. Without ticking clocks, I think this will always be the case - PCs will retreat and recover all their HP and spells before pressing forward.

Well, I could set arbitrary consequences for the passage of time, but since I prefer to be a referee than an author during the game, I'd prefer to have these things considered beforehand. 

There must be multiple tables for random events in any number of RPGs, but I simply don't remember any. So here are some ideas. 

1 - Aging and death 

There are some rules in AD&D (which one could use for PCs), but I want something more straightforward. In a medieval, dangerous environment, I think giving every NPC at least 2% chance of random death per year. In theory, elderly people might have bigger chances than that (say, 4% you're over forty, 8% over 50, 16% over 60, etc., to a maximum of 99%), but people of any age can be randomly eaten by a monster, slain in war or affected by a plague. Maybe the risk of debilitating accidents/disease is similar.

The death of a ruler can lead to a peaceful succession... or war and anarchy.

2 - Random monsters

PCs roll for random encounters every day while travelling. It is likely that villages will be randomly attacked form time to time - maybe 10 to 30% chance every month, depending on the surrounding terrain? (BTW, may if you roll 1-3% the entire LAIR attacked the city). If this happens, you can roll an encounter as usual and evaluate what happens. For example: 

- No losses, the city is too fortified to be bothered by a dozen kobolds. 
- Some losses, a group of 40 orcs would certainly leave a mark. There is a chance of death or debility for each important NPC in town. 
- Total loss, the city is taken by an enemy force. 
- Obliteration. There is no way the city could defeat 3 aggressive dragons or storm giants. 

The best part is that the PCs will be very likely to look for revenge... could be the begging of a cool adventure.

3 - Natural disasters

Small natural disasters are accounted in part 1. Big earthquakes, tsunamis, eruptions, plagues, etc., are less likely. 1% per year sounds reasonable. Maybe roll once for every region that could be affected.

4 - Pillaging

If there is rumor of treasure, it is very likely that some other party will hear it eventually. Maybe 10% of chance per month that another expedition tries to plunder it... whether they succeed or not is another matter.

5 - Campaign-specific events 

This would be optimal, of course - if you already established a threat, the PCs have a meaningful choice - do they deal with it, or risk waiting and seeing what happens? You definitely should write some for you setting, as these are probably the most important and noteworthy events you can have. If EVERY relevant location has a list of specific dangers, that is even better!

However, I don't want these to be the ONLY ticking clocks in the setting.

Do things always get worse?

Well, most people die eventually, but that includes inimical NPCs. You might roll for the likelihood of new towns emerging, etc., but in most fantasy settings the evil forces are always pressing until the story ends. And I like my fantasy DARK, with danger and ruin in every corner.

STRICT TIME RECORDS

Needless to say, you need STRICT TIME RECORDS for this to work.

Putting it into practice

How do I like the idea in principle, this would require a lot of dice rolling, usually to no effect, and has little nuance (e.g., if you only check once a year, it doesn't really matter if the PCs are out for a month or two). 

Maybe I could invert the reasoning. Let's say, a certain event happens, on average, every 100 days. So when the PCs get to town, they roll 1d100 and compare to the number of days they have been away to see if something happened. With online dice rollers, you could roll 1d356,1d777 or whatever. Even better, you could automate this online. Otherwise, you need some math... and time. 

Let me hear some ideas. I'm sure there is a simple way to do this. My ideal result - maybe using perchance.com or something similar - would be randomly generate a table like that: 

- NPC 1 dies on day 357.
- NPC 2 dies on day 758.
- NPC 3 dies on day 23. 
- The city gets attacked by a monster on day 37. 
- Natural disaster hits on day 8756.

So, if you spent a couple of months away, you have a dead NPC (IF there are three relevant NPCs in town) and a monster attack. If they spent exactly 36 days away, they are in for a surprise (but this is unlikely). 

After they leave town, you can ignore unused results and "restart" the count.

Is there anything like this in any game you know? Any ideas on how to make this easier?

Additional reading:

https://methodsetmadness.blogspot.com/2024/08/time-scales-rounds-days-weeks.html